The Long-Tail of Social Networks

I was flying through my Google Reader and this post from Pete Blackshaw over at ConsumerGeneratedMedia caught my attention and I'd like to expand on it. I was surprised when I went to check my facebook friend count I was sitting at 465, and naturally someone one just added me so now I'm at 466, approaching the 500 friend count in essence.  So in adding my two cents, Pete raises a great question in: how much is too much?  Do you believe there is  a point of diminishing returns when it comes to the size of our social networks on sites like facebook, myspace, and others alike.  At what point are conversation and traditional efforts of staying connected being sacrificed by the ease of access to the many aspects of our lives which we are living out and making public on a daily basis? What are the implications are all this information proliferation having on social norms and are ability to communicate at large?  These are important questions to be asking. 

Here's my dilemma, I see  people on campus everyday, people who I've had class with before, or met once or twice at some point over the last 4 years, and sometimes I realize: Hey I'm facebook friends with that person.  Very often nothing ends up happening, we can be sitting across each other in the same computer lab, or go as far as making eye contact but no one speaks.  I can't tell you how many times this has happened to me.  While this might not seem like that big of deal, does the fact that I can't always remember someones name in one of these situations and it's only later that I go home, log onto facebook and confirm that I am friends with person because they just posted new photo's, or are attending this event, or are now dating this person, or wrote on this persons wall (Thanks NewsFeed).

Point being, as all our social networks continue to grow, at some point does it become reasonable to nullify online friendships by canceling friends we haven't talked to in years?  I'm not saying I can't handle 500 online friends, but I think it's reasonable to believe I would still be a member of facebook in 10 years.  At that point, how many friends will I have...a 1000...2000?  Is there any value in viewing newsfeed photo's from someone you knew for a short time but haven't talked to in over a decade?  These are questions we will all surely be asking ourselves at some point.  Last fall I wrote a post on why I came to the decision to cancel my myspace account because I didn't see enough long term value to being a member anymore.  Now, I am in no way saying this will eventually become consensus with facebook, but like Howard Zinn talked about: "you can't be neutral on a moving train".   Or this blogs on theme: change is the only constant.  This reality will be imperative for social networks to understand.

Here's my prediction, as our social networks continue to expand, the overwhelming flood of information available will eventually result in diminishing value.  In general, social networks will need to take on a format in which the information overload can be managed.  User controls will have to be put in place so as to continue filtration.  We've seen facebook adjust their format but what will need to be implemented eventually is the ability to manage and filter are networks in a long-tail sort of way.  I checked some of facebook's newsfeed settings and while a lot can be managed, for those out there who already have more than 1000 friends, it doesn't seem to be enough. 

Lastly, while we've seen even middle aged working professionals embrace platforms like facebook.  The greater question at large remains: how will facebook and other social networks continue to bridge generational gaps as it's original patrons age and pressures to grow force them to attract younger users?  Can many or any of these social networks become  multi-generational brands 10-20-30 years down the road?  One thing is for sure, the choice in segmentation for users will be key moving  forward as our friend counts reach new heights.

Note: the picture at the beginning of this post is a graphical representation of all 466 0f my facebook friends.  This is an application called the friend wheel and is available on facebook.